The Scouting Report: Toledo
Tagged under: Pennsylvania Colleges, pfn, Temple
Mike Livingston | September 16, 2026
Temple’s first road test of 2026 comes against a Toledo roster that is unfamiliar but hardly unproven.
The Rockets returned only one starter from last season, but first-year head coach Mike Jacobs replenished the lineup with 36 transfers, including 14 players from his former program at Mercer. The rebuilt group has quickly produced one of the Mid-American Conference’s most explosive offenseas, averaging 421 yards and 41.5 points through two games.
Toledo remained within striking distance of Big Ten opponent Michigan State before losing 30-20, then responded by scoring nine touchdowns in a 63-10 rout of Central Connecticut State last week. As Temple prepares to visit the Glass Bowl on Saturday, its defense must contain a Rockets offense averaging 17 yards per completion and capable of changing the game with one play.
Matchup: Temple (1-1) at Toledo (1-1)
Kickoff: Saturday, Sept. 19, at 3 p.m.
Location: Glass Bowl, Toledo, Ohio
Broadcast: CBS Sports Network
Series: Toledo leads, 8-3
When Toledo Has the Ball
Toledo’s offense begins with junior quarterback John Alan Richter, who has completed 27 of 45 passes for 448 yards, five touchdowns and one interception. Richter threw for a career-high 252 yards and three scores against Central Connecticut State, including an 85-yard touchdown to Rico Bond that represents Toledo’s longest play of the season.
The Rockets have surrounded Richter with multiple downfield threats. Mercer transfer Adjatay Dabbs has eight receptions for 135 yards and three touchdowns, while Bond has turned four catches into 135 yards and a score. Bryson Hammer has added six receptions for 86 yards, giving Toledo three receivers averaging more than 14 yards per catch.
Toledo can also punish defenses that devote too much attention to its passing game. Connor Walendzak has rushed for 110 yards and two touchdowns on 13 carries, including a 71-yard score against Michigan State. Mercer transfer CJ Miller, who rushed for 957 yards and 14 touchdowns last season, has added 78 yards and a score on 17 attempts.
Temple has limited opponents to 122.5 rushing yards per game, but its secondary has surrendered 231.5 passing yards per contest. The Owls must prevent Richter from connecting with Dabbs and Bond over the top while remaining disciplined against a backfield averaging 5.1 yards per carry. Forcing Toledo to sustain drives would eliminate the quick-strike plays that have fueled its offense through two weeks.
When Temple Has the Ball
Temple’s clearest offensive identity has emerged on the ground. The Owls are averaging 201.5 rushing yards per game and have surpassed 175 yards in both contests. Keveun Mason has led that effort with 234 yards and two touchdowns on 34 carries, averaging 6.9 yards per attempt.
That strength will face a Toledo defense surrendering only 111.5 rushing yards per game and three yards per carry. The Rockets’ front features Mercer transfer Andrew Zock, the reigning Buck Buchanan Award winner, who has recorded 1.5 tackles for loss and four quarterback hurries through two games. Linebackers Isaac Zay and Julian Fox have combined for 37 tackles, with Zay adding a sack and an interception.
Temple is expected to continue using Jaxon Smolik as its primary quarterback while incorporating Ajani Sheppard in packages that capitalize on his mobility. The Owls have averaged only 124.5 passing yards and converted 29.2% of their third downs, making consistent production through the air their biggest offensive concern. Toledo has allowed 156.5 passing yards per game while limiting opponents to a 29.4% conversion rate on third down.
Temple does not need to abandon its run-first approach, but it must punish Toledo for committing additional defenders to the box. If Mason can remain productive and create play-action opportunities for Peter Clarke, JoJo Bermudez and the Owls’ other targets, Temple should be able to sustain drives against the Rockets. Avoiding third-and-long situations will be especially important against a Toledo defense that has recorded 10 tackles for loss through two games.
The Deciding Factor
Temple’s ability to control possession could determine whether it can pull off the road upset.
Toledo has built its offense around explosive plays, while the Owls have been most effective when Mason and their mobile quarterbacks keep the offense ahead of the chains. Sustained drives would shorten the game, protect Temple’s defense and limit Richter’s opportunities to attack downfield.
The Owls must also finish those possessions with touchdowns. Toledo has scored a touchdown on each of its six red-zone trips, leaving Temple little room to settle for field goals. A slower game featuring Mason, manageable third downs, and limited possessions would favor the Owls; a back-and-forth contest filled with explosive plays would play directly into Toledo’s strengths.
Prediction: Toledo 31, Temple 24
Temple’s running game and defense should keep the Owls within striking distance, but Toledo possesses more ways to generate points quickly. Unless Smolik and Temple’s passing game can consistently capitalize when the Rockets crowd the box, the Owls could struggle to answer Toledo score for score. Richter connects on multiple downfield throws, and the Rockets make enough second-half plays to earn their eighth consecutive victory at the Glass Bowl.
