Inside DXI Football Power Rankings: Week 6 Edition

Tagged under: District 11, News, pfn

Cody Brady | October 2, 2024

Ah, those power rankings–those complex math equations that confound us with sometimes unexpected results and provide us our playoff seedings in many of the eastern PIAA districts. What’s it all mean? How will they change moving forward? Who’s in line for the playoffs after six weeks? Why is my team behind that other team that my team beat?! Let’s break it all down in DXI. Moving forward, we’ll revisit this topic every week until the playoffs and reassess if and how things are changing based on the latest scenarios.

See the official DXI power rankings here and follow along!

To make it as simple as possible, 59% of the power ranking formula is based on the classification of the teams a team beats. The other 41% is a weighted strength of schedule figure(opponents weighted winning percentage) that is factored in to each game played, win or lose.

Class A

• The top four(4) teams qualify for the postseason in this classification shared with District 2. If two teams from District 2 and two teams from District XI make it in, the districts play each other in the first round to crown individual district champions before those winners would meet the following week.

1. Lackawanna Trail(5-1 .673) sits atop class A. This D2 school is riding a four game winning streak with a 26 point margin of victory over those games. They’ll next face Carbondale(4-2), a 3A school. That win would greatly bolster Trail’s numbers, as power rankings reward playing up, even if you lose. Lackawanna Trail’s only loss so far comes against Western Wayne(6-0), another 3A opponent.
2. Nativity BVM(5-1 .566) is tied in record with Lackawanna Trail but sits far behind them in the power rankings at a distant second place, due in part to a weaker schedule(you’ll see this theme as we move forward). Holy Redeemer, Pine Grove, Panther Valley, Mahanoy Area, and Shenandoah Valley have a combined four victories. The Green Wave have remaining games against Schuylkill Haven and Minersville, two 2A opponents that could help them up their numbers, but for now Lackawanna Trail is a comfortable #1 seed with four games to play.
3. Tri-Valley(4-2 .535) is in a similar spot to Nativity BVM, trailing them by a relatively slim margin. While the Dawgs will be favored in their next two against Shenandoah Valley(0-6) and Mahanoy Area(2-4), those wins will hurt in terms of opponents weighted winning percentage. Just Like the Green Wave, their seeding will come down to games against Schuylkill Haven and Minersville as things stand.
4. Old Forge(3-3 .467) is the fourth and final seed after six weeks. Their schedule strength is comparable to Tri-Valley, with a lot of upside potential. Undefeated Riverside and 3A opponent Carbondale wait in the final two weeks after bouts with Susquehanna Community(4-2) and Holy Cross(3-3). They will need to put together a few more wins and are not safely in the top four by any stretch.
5. Marian Catholic(4-2 .445) Here’s our first odd situation. Why is a 4-2 Colts team behind a 3-3 Old Forge team? The Colts, to this point, have the weakest strength of schedule in DXI. Things don’t get easy, though, and the Colts have a chance to propel themselves into the top four when they face Schuylkill Haven and Williams Valley the next two weeks.
6. Holy Cross(3-3) isn’t out of the race, either, by any stretch. An upset of unbeaten Riverside this week would rocket the Crusaders right back into the playoff discussion. They also have remaining games against Old Forge and Lackawanna Trail, allowing them to practically control their own destiny into a playoff berth.

Class AA

• The top 8 teams make the class AA bracket this season.

1. Williams Valley(5-1 .670) lost to Schuylkill Haven. What gives? Victories over Nativity, Minersville, and Tri-Valley, along with just having played the Hurricanes, have put the Vikings ahead of the pack. Their strength of schedule numbers will come back to Earth with three remaining favorable games against Panther Valley, Shenandoah Valley, and Pine Grove.
2. Schuylkill Haven(5-1 .640) appears to trail Williams Valley by a fair margin mathematically, despite just having beat the Vikings 38-30. However, unlike Williams Valley, the Hurricanes have more potential to move up. If both teams were to win out, Schuylkill Haven would almost assuredly outpoint Williams Valley due to remaining games against Tri-Valley and Nativity. Keep an eye on this race.
3. Northern Lehigh(4-2 .572) significantly trails the top two seeds, but also is well ahead of the fourth seed right now. The Bulldogs have steady stability in their schedule, balancing playing up to 3A and 4A opponents along with not overscheduling. The power rankings formula cares not about margin of victory, so Northern Lehigh gets two ‘quality losses’ in their 49 point defeat to rivals Northwestern Lehigh and 30 point loss to NDGP. Next up is a Wilson Area team that is winless, but won’t be a pushover. This is still a big one for the Bulldogs, as they would be slightly rewarded for playing up to another 4A school.
4. Executive Education(4-2 .494) is comfortably in the four spot right now. The Raptors play a mostly non-DXI schedule and play numerous teams that do not partner with DXI. Therefore, power rankings are calculated a bit differently and their District 1 and 12 foes’ strength of schedule(OWP) is calculated strictly by wins and losses, rather than classification factoring in. Yeah, that sentence is tough to digest. We’ll see this again when we look at the 6A rankings. Suffice it to say, for Executive, the numbers aren’t affected much. As of now, the Raptors only have one remaining opponent with a winning record and if they take care of business, can hold steady at the 4 seed.
5. Catasauqua(3-3 .441) is on a three game skid, falling into the five slot, out of a first round home game. The Rough Riders have had a rough go of it, but have a shot to right the ship with 4A Jim Thorpe this week. Catty is in a razor-thin margin race with the current #6 seed and will need some key victories to stay up in the race.
6. Pen Argyl(3-3 .436) gets a crack at Notre Dame Green Pond this week and a win would bump them up to the #5 seed. The Green Knights will also go head to head with the Roughs, and in a race this close, that will assuredly help one climb over the other.
7. Minersville(3-3 .401) was bit by the injury bug two weeks ago when they lost a 72-52 scorcher to Schuylkill Haven. Add in the 42-36 late rally loss to Williams Valley and an overtime defeat to Marian Catholic last week, and the Miners find themselves near the bottom of the field. The good news is that with a win against Nativity or Tri-Valley, along with taking care of business against Pine Grove and Panther Valley, Minersville will comfortably be in the field. Hosting a playoff game, though, is probably out of reach without significant help.
8. Mahanoy Area(2-4 .372) has won two in a row to currently have the final playoff seed. With the next two against Nativity and Tri-Valley, Mahanoy Area does have two chances at upset wins to solidify a playoff berth
9. Palisades(1-5 .342) is in a tough spot on the outside looking in after six games. However, the remaining schedule includes three 3A and one 4A school, offering the chance to pass Mahanoy Area.

Class AAA

• Only four teams qualify in this field of nine this year. It’s very unfortunate, because it looks like one really good school could be left out in heartbreaking fashion.

1. Northwestern Lehigh(6-0 .742) has yet to be challenged through six weeks. Winning by an average of 40.5ppg, the Tigers sit in a great spot to make another deep state playoff run. As it stands, they’d open the playoffs against North Schuylkill, a team they already beat 49-7. If they continue their winning ways, they could clinch the top seed in week 9 with a win over Tamaqua.
2. Tamaqua(6-0 .735) could temporarily take the top seed from Northwestern Lehigh this week with a victory over Southern Lehigh. However, both they and Northwestern Lehigh play a near identical schedule from here on out, so the week 9 matchup should decide the top seed.
3. Notre Dame Green Pond(5-1 .718) looks like a sure-fire third seed. They will be favored in their final four games, and unlike the top two, don’t play a significantly difficult schedule the rest of the way. In fact, Green Pond plays down in class twice. The Crusaders could temporarily move to the two slot, but more than likely end up in the third.
4. North Schuylkill(3-3 .608) has played the most difficult schedule in DXI. That is why they are decently ahead of Saucon Valley. Mount Carmel, Tamaqua, NDGP, Southern Lehigh, and Northwestern Lehigh make up a brutal gauntlet to this point. Four 4A opponents remain, starting with winless Bangor this week.
5. Saucon Valley(5-1 .588) is playing down in class twice in their final four games. It is entirely possible that a 9-1 Saucon Valley team could miss the district playoffs behind a 7-3 North Schuylkill squad depending how OWP pans out. Victories against Southern Lehigh and Northern Lehigh will almost be required for the Panthers to make the field.

Class AAAA

• This year, eight teams make the playoffs in 4A. Right now, it’s a three team race for the top seed with four weeks to go.

1. Southern Lehigh(5-1 .702) and Tamaqua meet up this Friday night in a must-win game to keep both in the race for respective top seeds. Once that result is in, the 3A and 4A races should become quite a bit clearer at the top. The Spartans also face the Tigers in week 10.
2. Blue Mountain(5-1 .685) beat Southern Lehigh, but playing down to two 2A opponents hurts the TWP enough to put the Eagles below the Spartans at this time. If both teams win this week, Blue Mountain would lose more ground playing a 2-4 Lehighton squad.
3. Bethlehem Catholic(4-2 .652) has one heck of a schedule left. Freedom, Liberty, Nazareth, and Northampton make up the top four seeds in class 6A and if the Golden Hawks piece a few wins together, they could run away with the top seed in 4A
4. Central Catholic(2-4 .544) sits ahead of 3-3 Pottsville right now due to strength of schedule(OWP) being significantly higher. The Vikings are having a tough go of it, but have fallen to the likes of Liberty, Freedom, Emmaus, and Bethlehem Catholic. They should be favored against Allen and Dieruff, and those wins alone should guarantee a playoff berth along with playing up in class for all four remaining games.
5. Pottsville(3-3 .534) has some, but not much, room for movement. Because of the Vikings remaining schedule, the Crimson Tide really need an upset this Friday night against Northwestern Lehigh to keep hopes of a home playoff game alive.
6. East Stroudsburg North(2-4 .479) plays up in their final four games, but those teams only have six combined wins right now. The Timberwolves may be nearly locked into the six spot already, provided they can win two or three of their remaining contests against Pleasant Valley, ES South, Stroudsburg and PM East
7. Lehighton(2-4 .410) would need a couple of upset victories in their remaining difficult schedule to really move out of the 7 slot, it looks like. They get Blue Mountain, Tamaqua and North Schuylkill next. A couple of upsets could really cause chaos.
8. Jim Thorpe(1-5 .356) may see their playoff hopes come down to a week 9 showdown with Bangor to make the field. Jim Thorpe won’t be moving out of the 8 slot unless they can win out, including an upset at Northwestern Lehigh.

Class AAAAA

• All four teams make the playoffs in 5A. Pleasant Valley’s strength of schedule, which includes Parkland, Nazareth and ES South provides the wide margin between themselves and PM East for the three seed. This would not be overcome even if the Cardinals win the head to head meeting, if the teams continue to lose otherwise.

Class AAAAAA

• 8 teams will qualify for the playoffs in class 6A and this promises to be the classification with the most fluctuation down the stretch.

1. Liberty(6-0 .846) has hit the meat of their schedule. Class 6A is, by far, the murkiest to predict where things will fall after six weeks in. In good news for the Hurricanes, they won’t have to leave the comfort of BASD Stadium for the remainder of the regular season, facing Nazareth, Easton, Bethlehem Catholic and Freedom.
2. Freedom(6-0 .843) is behind Liberty by a whisker and much is yet to be decided. If both win this week, Liberty will remain ahead of the Patriots, but there is much to be decided. Freedom’s out of state game against Torrey PInes from San Diego is being counted in the power rankings. Torrey Pines is currently 2-3 on their season and is not favored in this week’s game. This hurts the Patriots’ OWP figure just a bit, which has kept Liberty in the top spot.
3. Easton(5-1 .817) has won five in a row and is playing strong for head coach Matt Senneca, who experienced a health issue earlier two weeks ago on the sideline at Emmaus. Easton will have a crack at the top seed with opportunities against Northampton, Liberty, Freedom and Nazareth.
4. Parkland(5-1 .795) will be favored in its next three contests before the week ten showdown with archrivals Emmaus. Barring significant help, though, the Trojans’ ceiling is the third seed. Facing Dieruff this week will hurt OWP and should hold them steady in fourth place.
5. Nazareth(4-2 .741), like other teams discussed in the 6A field, has a lot of opportunities to rise or fall. Liberty, Bethlehem Catholic, Northampton and Easton all remain on the Blue Eagles schedule.
6. Northampton(4-2 .729) is still searching for that big win against a team from the southern parts of the EPC. The Konkrete Kids are in an identical boat to Nazareth–they could rise as high as 3 or drop to the 8 spot depending primarily on if they can beat Easton, Freedom, Nazareth, and/or Bethlehem Catholic.
7. Emmaus(4-2 .709) will need some help from the teams ahead of them in order to move up. The Green Hornets now have Whitehall, Dieruff, and Allen all in a row, which will tank the OWP component in the power rankings. The chance for a home playoff game very well likely comes down to the final game against Parkland.
8. Stroudsburg(3-3 .617) is ahead of Dieruff because of an OWP nearly double that of the Huskies. The Mounties will be favored in at least three of their remaining games against PM West, ES North and Pleasant Valley, with an interesting game against ES South also remaining. Even winning out, though, Stroudsburg has virtually no room to move up at this time from the 8 seed.
9. Dieruff(4-2 .596), after a 4-0 start, lost a critical game against Whitehall which could have decided their district playoff fate. While OWP will rocket up when the Huskies play Parkland and Emmaus, 59% of the power ranking formula is based on wins, and the Huskies won’t be favored in those or against Central Catholic in week 9. Unless the Huskies can shock the Lehigh Valley by winning one of their next three games before beating Allen, they will be left out of the district field.

Read more at LSVSports.com

Follow PA Football News on Twitter @PaFootballNews