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Inside DXI Football Power Rankings: Week 7 Edition

Tagged under: District 11, News, pfn

| October 8, 2024

As we move one week closer to the playoffs, let’s take a look at how teams faired this past weekend and how it affects their power rankings numbers and potential seeding.

Class AAAAAA

  • The long and short of it in 6A is if your name is Freedom, Easton, or Liberty and you win out, you’re the top seed.
  1. Freedom(7-0, .857, up from .843) – The Patriots picked apart Bethlehem Catholic, getting five turnovers on their way to victory. However, as you can see, the reward for beating a 4A team with a winning record is not much, due to the hit on TWP(the 59% of the formula that is weighted wins divided by weighted wins plus weighted losses). With Northampton, Easton, and Liberty left, Freedom controls their own destiny now to a top seed.
  2. Easton(6-1, .821, up from .817) – The Red Rovers also didn’t end up gaining much this week, despite a nice win over Northampton. The OWP they pick up from Northampton will go up over the next two weeks when the Kids play Freedom and Nazareth. Easton has Liberty, Freedom, and Nazareth, and will control their own destiny to a top seed, just like Freedom.
  3. Liberty(6-1, .801, down from .846) – The Hurricanes take a tumble in their loss to Nazareth. Easton, Bethlehem Catholic, and Freedom are the remaining opponents for Liberty. Because Easton also plays Freedom, Liberty is the third team in this list that controls their own destiny to a top seed.
  4. Parkland(6-1, .797, up from .795) – Nothing really changed for the Trojans this week. Picking up the weak OWP from Dieruff doesn’t create any real movement. Playing down in class over the next two in Central Catholic and Whitehall will also lead to not much movement. Parkland is awaiting the results of the carnage among the top 3 seeds all playing each other and stands to benefit from whoever falls there.
  5. Nazareth(5-2 .770, up from .741) – The Blue Eagles will factor in to how the top 5 seeds fall, as they still face Easton in week 10. A home game is certainly within reach, but there won’t be much movement next week if they beat Bethlehem Catholic.
  6. Emmaus(5-2, .728, up from .709) – The Green Hornets get a small boost from Whitehall’s pretty good OWP. However, the next two weeks see Emmaus play Dieruff and Allen, which will result in virtually no movement. Even a victory over Parkland in week 10 would most likely not put Emmaus in play for a top 4 seed. With the margins that need to be covered, Emmaus is pretty much a lock for the 6 seed, whether they finish 8-2 or 7-3.
  7. Northampton(4-3 .686, down from .729) – If you look at the Northampton and Easton OWP numbers, you’ll notice they are practically identical. The difference when you lose a game, though, is you don’t add anything to TWP(points awarded for the classification of the teams you beat divided by that number plus weighted losses), which makes up 59% of the power rankings formula. With Freedom, Nazareth, and Beca left, Northampton could bounce right back up the ladder if they can pull off a couple of big victories.
  8. Stroudsburg(4-3 .634, up from .617) – Stroudsburg picks up a small gain from beating up on PM West due to West’s OWP, but not much. They face ES North, ES South, and Pleasant Valley to end the season, so Stroudsburg doesn’t have much of a ceiling from here on out. They will be favored in two of those games and are practically a lock for the 8 seed at this point, even if they win all three.
  9. Dieruff(4-3, .579, down from .596) – The Huskies were taken to task by Parkland, and because of Parkland’s one-loss record and OWP, you can see that a ‘quality loss’ doesn’t drop you significantly in the power rankings. The problem for Dieruff is they need a quality upset win over Emmaus or ACC to get back in the race before they face Allen to finish the season.

Class AAAAA – All four teams qualify and nothing changed this week from last week.

Class AAAA

  • No movement this week in term of seeding, but some significant movement in terms of the power ranking numbers did occur.
  1. Southern Lehigh(6-1, .736, up from .702) – The Spartans put a momentary damper on Tamaqua’s really nice season. Solehi gains quite a bit with the previously unbeaten opponent and separates themselves from the two slot. The Spartans will be favored against Bangor and Saucon Valley before a week 10 contest with Northwestern Lehigh. Even a ‘quality loss’ there could net Southern the top seed in the 4A tournament.
  2. Blue Mountain(6-1, .696, up from .685) – The Eagles did not gain much in beating up on Lehighton. Blue Mountain has an interesting remaining schedule. They don’t stand to pick up many points from Pottsville or North Schuylkill, but depending on how it goes with Tamaqua, the Eagles could narrowly squeak by the Spartans for the top seed.
  3. Bethlehem Catholic(4-3, .643, down from .652) – The Hawks took one of those ‘quality losses’ in falling to Freedom Thursday night. The penalty for losing to a 6A unbeaten team is very minor. Beca may not be favored in their final three games, taking on Nazareth, Liberty and Northampton, but due to that strength of schedule, can still hang on to the 3 seed in this 8 team bracket.
  4. Allentown Central Catholic(3-4, .578, up from .544) – The Vikings get most of this bump because Allen is a 6A school, and 59% of the formula likes that fact. Central is in a good spot to maintain the 4th and final home game seed in this bracket, even if they were to lose against Parkland and Whitehall.
  5. Pottsville(3-4, .513, down from .534) – Pottsville takes the quality loss rout, not being penalized terribly for losing to Northwestern Lehigh. Pottsville is virtually locked into the 5 or 6 seed at this point, even if they beat Blue Mountain and North Schylkill to end the year.
  6. East Stroudsburg North(3-4. .490, up from .479) – ES North is locked into the 5 or 6 slot, much like Pottsville. Working in the Timberwolves’ favor is the fact that they play up in their final three games against Stroudsburg, PM East, and ES South.
  7. Lehighton(2-5, .408, down from .410) – Lehighton battles the Olympians for the 7 seed, as both have all but clinched a playoff berth. The two will meet in week 10.
  8. Jim Thorpe(2-5, .406, up from .356) – Winning helps a lot of things, and the same is true here. Despite playing down two classes, to get anything more in your TWP and OWP when you’re near the bottom of the standings creates a nice little bounce. The Olympians control their playoff destiny with games against Bangor(the 9 seed) and Lehighton, right above them.

Class AAA

  • We have some movement, and Saucon Valley fans will be happy this week, as they climb over North Schuylkill. Now, will that remain the case? Let’s take a look.
  1. Northwestern Lehigh(7-0, .753, up from .742) – The Tigers remain untested with another blowout victory over Pottsville. Even if they were to fall in week 10 to Southern Lehigh, Northwestern has all but clinched the top seed in the 4 team field.
  2. Notre Dame Green Pond(6-1, .718, unchanged) – The Crusaders, in extremely rare fashion, see no change at all in their ranking this week. They will be heavy favorites against Palisades, Palmerton, and Wilson Area, making them a virtual lock for the 2 seed at this time.
  3. Tamaqua(6-1, .682, down from .735) – The drop from unbeaten to one loss in the power rankings is a significant one, due to that TWP figure taking a big hit. Things get dicey from here. They will probably be favored against Lehighton, but with NW lehigh and Blue Mountain looming, Tamaqua could go from unbeaten to out of districts.
  4. Saucon Valley(6-1, .613, up from .588) – For the moment, Panthers fans can rejoice. Northern and Southern Lehigh await in weeks 9 and 10, so Saucon will have their hands full. Saucon Valley fans should be rooting hard for Blue Mountain this week, as they face North Schuylkill.
  5. North Schuylkill(4-3, .600, down from .608) – North Schuylkill loses .008 on a win over Bangor, as the Slaters remain winless. Thursday’s tilt between the Spartans and Blue Mountain will be pivotal in the race for the final seed in this bracket.

Class AA

  • We have some shuffling in the bottom four seeds this week.
  1. Williams Valley(6-1 .672, up from .670) – The Vikings got virtually nothing for beating a one-win Panther Valley squad. Williams Valley will need Schuylkill Haven to lose at least a game, because if both Vikings and Hurricanes win out, the Hurricanes will outpoint WV for the top seed.
  2. Schuylkill Haven(6-1, .664, up from .640) – Just about everybody on the Hurricanes schedule won and, despite playing down a class, Haven beat a four-win Colts team. With Pine Grove, Nativity, and Tri-Valley left, Haven would take the top seed in 2A if they win out.
  3. Northern Lehigh(5-2, .575, up from .572) – The Bulldogs are all but a lock for the 3 seed in this bracket. Even winning out, beating Saucon Valley, Northern Lehigh’s would not gain enough points to reach the 2 spot as things stand.
  4. Executive Education(4-3, .467, down from .494) – The loss to Conwell-Egan really hits hard for the Raptors, who have a very weak schedule down the home stretch. One more falter could see them passed for a home game by Minersville, who plays a tougher schedule.
  5. Minersville(4-3, .425, up from .401) – The Battlin’ Miners move up two spots this week after beating Pine Grove. The next two weeks are against Nativity and Tri-Valley, so Minersville has its hands full and could battle the Raptors for that four spot, or slide as low as 7th.
  6. Pen Argyl(3-4, .417, down from .436) – Like others this week who lost as heavy underdogs, the Green Knights are not penalized severely for losing to Green Pond. The Green Knights have clinched a playoff berth and could move up a spot if they pull a win over Saucon Valley this week.
  7. Catasauqua(3-4, .389, down from .441) – Mathematically and on the field, this was a bad shutout loss to a one-win Jim Thorpe squad. The Rough Riders are securely in the top 8, but want to go in on a high. The five seed is still attainable.
  8. Mahanoy Area(2-5, .358, down from .372) – Mahanoy Area won’t be favored next week against Tri-Valley, but has two winnable games against Panther Valley and Shenandoah Valley to let them secure the 8 seed.

Class A

  • Lackawanna Trail basically has the top seed wrapped up with three weeks to go, but as for who else makes the field of four, a lot remains up in the air.
  1. Lackawanna Trail(6-1, .692, up from .673) – Lions Nation has basically clinched the top seed in class A. They will be battled tested in their final two weeks, playing the top two teams in District 2 2A: Riverside and Susquehanna Community.
  2. Nativity BVM(6-1, .584, up from .566) – The Green Wave is one win from clinching a home playoff game in the class A semifinals. Standing in their way, however, is a grouping of Minersville, Schuylkill Haven, and rivals Marian. Nativity has outscored their last four opponents 194-21 as the schedule crescendos.
  3. Tri-Valley(5-2, .527, down from .535) – TV needs to win out to get into the #2 seed discussion and have a chance to outpoint Nativity. They will gain nothing next week against Mahanoy Area, but if they can outlast Minersville and Haven, it’d be possible they’d host Nativity in the semifinals, despite having lost the head-to-head meeting 34-13.
  4. Old Forge(3-4, .435, down from .467) – The Blue Devils have dropped three consecutive games and are now in danger of falling well out of the playoff race. Riverside and Carbondale will provide significant tests and are de facto playoff games for Old Forge.
  5. Marian Catholic(4-3, .421, down from .445) – The Colts dropped one to Schuylkill Haven, but with Old Forge in freefall, are still alive. Marian has a good chance to beat Pine Grove and all bets are off when they face Nativity, which could be a play-in game for the Colts.
  6. Holy Cross(3-4, .372) is still in the conversation and will have a chance to rocket up the standings when they face Old Forge and Lackawanna Trail over the next two weeks.

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